Tampa Bay Downs Late Pick Four

Saturday’s a big day at Tampa Bay Downs. In addition to the Sam F. Davis Stakes, the 11-race program features three other stakes events and large fields all day long.

The late Pick Four starts in the eighth race. Prior to scratches, the main bodies of these fields contain 44 entrants, which makes for lots of room to build value on a ticket. Mine costs $36 to start. That cost may come down if one or two also-eligibles scratch, and here’s how I’ve put it together.

A single to start

As tempted as I am to play ultimate hunch bet No. 1 Blamethechampagne in the Suncoast Stakes, I can’t do that. The opening leg of this Pick Four houses the heaviest favorite of the sequence, and I think she’ll prove very tough to beat.

No. 2 Nest didn’t do much wrong as a 2-year-old. She won at first asking at Belmont before running third in the Tempted and winning the Grade 2 Demoiselle. Aqueduct shippers sometimes make me nervous, but that day’s third-place finisher came right back to win a stakes race. I think that effort is legitimate and that this Todd Pletcher trainee is looming large to kick this off. She’s a single for me.

Spreading in the ninth

I have no such strong opinions about the second leg. This turf route drew a full field of fillies and mares. While the class-dropping favorite isn’t without a shot, there are enough others in here that make sense to where I’m going six deep.

No. 8 Editor at Large showed potential as a 2-year-old back in 2020, when she ran third in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo and contested the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. However, she’s run just twice since then, and neither effort was inspiring. Still, those came against better horses, and Chad Brown’s 9-for-19 record at the meet simply can’t be ignored.

In addition to that one, I’ll also use No. 2 Joyous Times, No. 5 Jean V’s Legacy, No. 9 Zerenia, No. 10 Gladys and No. 14 Applecross. Applecross is an also-eligible, and she needs a scratch to run. However, she came back running off of a long layoff last time out. Should she run here, she’ll get plenty of pace to chase, and she’s another that’s run against much better horses recently.

Three deep in the feature

I’ve previewed the Sam F. Davis already, and I won’t rehash it too much. To make a long story short, No. 3 Classic Causeway is my top pick, but No. 8 Shipsational and No. 11 Strike Hard aren’t without chances at slightly bigger prices. I’ll use all three of them on my ticket.

Another grass grab bag

Your guess is as good as mine with regard to which runner will go favored in this $16,000 claimer. I’m going four deep, and my top pick hits me as the most likely early leader.

No. 2 Fly Fly Away was a good second at this level three back and got claimed that day. He’s since run twice against tougher starter allowance foes and returns to the $16,000 claiming ranks here. The inside draw should allow him to secure a strong position early, and I think the shallower waters will be to his liking.

No. 5 Unleveraged, No. 9 Toss and No. 13 Minnesota Lucky (another also-eligible) are on my ticket as well. The one short price I’m against is No. 12 Dream Liner. He’s run well in two local tries, but he’s benefited from being a stone closer in races full of early speed. There’s some zip signed on, but I don’t think they’ll be flying early, and the far-outside post is a real problem. At his likely price, I’ll try to beat him.