We’ll head to Arkansas on Saturday for a key Kentucky Derby prep race at Oaklawn Park. The Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes has emerged as one of the bigger early-season events on the calendar, and its list of winners backs that up.
2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah started his campaign with a win in the Rebel. Other recent winners of note include champions Will Take Charge, Secret Circle, Curlin and Smarty Jones.
This year’s renewal drew a field of 11, and with rain in the forecast, it could be contested over a wet track. Let’s take a look at some of the major players.
Baffert trains the logical favorite
No. 2 Newgrange is the 9-5 morning line choice for good reason. He’s undefeated through three starts and has already won two graded stakes races this season. One of them was the Southwest here last month, where he topped several runners that show up again here. He’s shown he can run well on the lead or while rating a bit off the pace, and Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez is making the trip to ride for Bob Baffert.
Baffert’s been in the headlines a lot lately, as Medina Spirit was officially disqualified from his Kentucky Derby win earlier this week. However, as he appeals his latest legal setback, it certainly seems like his barn has a prime contender. A win here would give Baffert three Rebel victories in a row and nine since 2010.
Two others to think about
No. 8 Chasing Time put forth a career-best effort in an optional claiming event last month to win by nearly eight lengths. That was his first try going two turns, and he took to the added distance like a duck to water. His pedigree says this is what he wants to do, and his tactical speed is certainly a plus.
Meanwhile, No. 11 Dash Attack draws a terrible post, but his connections will be delighted if the skies open up on Saturday. He’s 2-for-2 over a wet track, including a win in the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year’s Day. Back-to-back bullet drills inspire confidence, and while he may not be able to run with Newgrange on a fast track, his proven ability over off going would make him very attractive at a bit of a price.
Betting strategies for Rebel Stakes
Newgrange is clearly the runner to beat. I’ll play primary exactas with him above the other two I mentioned and smaller wagers with those two above him.
- $10 exactas: 2 with 8, 11 ($20)
- $5 exactas: 8, 11 with 2 ($10, $30)
