Betting Strategies For Saturday's Late Pick Four At Oaklawn

Saturday is a big day at Oaklawn Park, one headlined by the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes. The feature headlines a 12-race program, with a late Pick Four starting in the ninth race of the day.

I’ll look to take it down with a $22.50 play that singles my top pick in the main event. Here’s how I’ve put my ticket together.

Three deep to start Oaklawn Park Pick Four

We’ll kick things off with the ninth, an allowance race for older milers. It’s drawn a full field (get used to hearing that), and I’ll use a quarter of the 12-horse group that’s set to go postward.

No. 1 Pats Property only has one poor effort on his ledger, and it came prior to a seven-month layoff. It’s safe to assume something went wrong in that three-back effort, and he’s been impressive here this winter. He boasts a win and a second in two local starts, and he has the early zip to make full use of the inside draw.

I’ll also use No. 8 Catholic Guilt and No. 10 Prioritization. The former hits me as a very intriguing price play. All three of his lifetime wins have come over this track, and he showed a new dimension last time when rallying from more than six lengths off the pace. This is a class test, to be sure, but his 15-1 morning line price hits me as an overlay.

A wide-open maiden race

The 10th is the first of two straight races for 3-year-olds. This one is for maidens, and of the 12 runners, eight will make their debuts in this spot.

The likely favorite is No. 8 Stayed in for Half, and he makes sense. His lone start to date came last month at Fair Grounds. He was second behind next-out winner Zozos, and the third-place finisher has since come back to win as well. Improvement is logical at second asking, and it helps that his prior effort came in a race that’s produced a few high-quality runners.

The two Brad Cox trainees are also on my ticket. No. 6 Lundberg is one of the first-time starters. He fetched $400,000 at auction, seems to be working well and is bred to be any kind. In addition, No. 13 Slim Man needs a scratch to draw in but is a must-use if he does. He’s run second in both of his career starts, and his last race came back very fast on speed figures.

Singling Newgrange in the Rebel

I wish I could get creative here, and perhaps my single-race strategies will extract more value. However, I think No. 2 Newgrange is very imposing in this Kentucky Derby prep race. He’s 3-for-3, with a win over this surface and a recent bullet drill at Santa Anita. If he runs to the ability he’s shown to this point, I think he’ll be very tough to beat.

Five deep to close it out

The Saturday finale hit me as the most wide-open race of this sequence. It’s for Arkansas-bred sprinters, and I’ll use nearly half the field in an attempt to bring this ticket home.

My tepid top pick is No. 8 Mo Choctaw. I simply think his last race was a bounce off of a terrific debut, one where he drew off to win by nearly 12 lengths. Perhaps he didn’t beat much that day, but I think he’s far better than his last-out effort. A similar performance to his first-out win would give him a big chance here.

I’m also using No. 3 Goodnight Archie, No. 7 Heritage Park, No. 11 Rolling Fork and No. 12 You Vee Cee. Your guess is as good as mine with regard to which runner in here goes favored. It’s a tremendous handicapping puzzle to finish things off, and I hope I’ve gone deep enough to find the winner.