Saturday is one of the final big days on the road to the Kentucky Derby. We’re less than a month away from the first Saturday in May, and the slate includes three 100-point Kentucky Derby preps across the country.
Many of these events feature some of the top 3-year-olds in training. That’ll be the last chance for handicappers to get a gauge on just how good they are and hopefully make some money while doing so. Let’s take a look.
Best bet comes in the Wood Memorial
There’s one I really like in Aqueduct’s flagship prep race. The Grade 2 Wood Memorial attracted eight runners, and it may be contested over a wet track. It’s been pouring in New York for most of this week.
Three runners figure to take most of the money, and I’m not sold on No. 3 Early Voting and No. 5 Morello. The former hasn’t shown he can rate yet, and there’s a lot of speed signed on. The latter, meanwhile, has never run two turns.
That leaves me with No. 1 Mo Donegal, and there’s a lot to like here. He chased White Abarrio home in the Grade 3 Holy Bull but won the Grade 2 Remsen at this route as a 2-year-old. He’s been working lights-out for trainer Todd Pletcher ahead of this race, and he’s bred to love muddy going.
I’d be very happy to get the 5-2 morning line price on that runner in this spot. I’m keeping things very simple: If Mo Donegal doesn’t win, I lose.
- $20 win: 1
Analyzing Kentucky’s major Kentucky Derby prep
The Grade 1 Blue Grass is a highlight of opening weekend at Keeneland. Fittingly, it drew a huge field of 12 that includes a bunch of horses we’ve seen in prior Kentucky Derby preps.
The two likely favorites are No. 10 Smile Happy and No. 4 Zandon, and both horses make sense. Smile Happy went 2-for-2 last season and was second behind Epicenter in the Grade 2 Risen Star. Zandon was third in that race but endured a tough trip in his first outing off a brief layoff.
I’ll key both of them on top in exactas that use two others underneath. No. 5 Volcanic has improved considerably as a 3-year-old. He ran third in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis behind Classic Causeway and should be rolling late. Additionally, No. 6 Emmanuel was a troubled-trip fourth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. I thought he was overbet that day, but if you liked him then, you’ll likely get a far better price in this spot.
- $4 exactas: 4, 10 with 4, 5, 6, 10 ($24)
Finding value in the Santa Anita Derby
That task is a tricky proposition. The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby drew just six horses, and it’s easy to see it as a two-horse race. No. 3 Forbidden Kingdom and No. 4 Messier will almost certainly be hammered at the windows, and for good reason.
The question is, if you’re going to bet this race, how can you do so and have a chance to connect for a nice score?
I’m taking a stance against one of them. I prefer Messier on top, as he’s shown he can sit off the pace and pounce late. Forbidden Kingdom’s win in the Grade 2 San Felipe was exceptional, but he wasn’t challenged up front that day. I think that will change here, and I’m just not sure he can go two turns while being hounded up top.
I’ll key Messier on top of a cold exacta that, instead, uses No. 6 Taiba in the second spot. He earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure in a sensational debut win last month. He tries two turns for the first time, but his pedigree says that won’t be a problem.
- $10 exacta: 4 with 6
