Betting Strategies: Friday's Late Pick Four at Gulfstream Park

Friday’s late Pick Four sequence at Gulfstream Park is a good one. Before scratches, we’ve got 34 betting interests set to go postward, which makes for many possible combinations and a chance at an overlaid payoff.

I’ll be attacking the sequence with a $32 ticket, one that takes a pretty big stand to finish things off. Here’s how I’ve put it together.

Going against the sixth-race favorite

No. 6 Agarramesipuedes is 2-1 on the morning line, and it’s not like he doesn’t make sense. He got Lasix for the first time, has attracted top local rider Luis Saez and has shown enough form to indicate he’s well-meant. However, he’s shown very little in the way of early speed. In a race without much other early zip signed on, I think he may have trouble working out his preferred trip.

I’ll go two deep, and my top pick is No. 5 Klugman. His career debut last month wasn’t bad, as he ran second and beat a pair of next-out winners. Trainer Eddie Plesa’s horses usually need a race to get going, and this one’s recent workouts are very sharp. I think he’s sitting on a big move forward.

I’ll also use No. 4 Cantankerous Cat, a first-time starter owned and trained by Mike Dini. This son of Neolithic has been working consistently at Tampa Bay, and the presence of first-call rider Paco Lopez is noteworthy. They could’ve easily found a softer spot at Tampa, but to me, shipping here reeks of confidence.

No surprises in the seventh

I’ll go two deep in this starter allowance on the synthetic surface as well. No. 5 Trevess is very logical and will probably go favored. She’s done her best running over synthetic surfaces, where she’s won two of three starts (including a race at this level and route two starts ago). She may need to work a bit early to get to the front, but she’s certainly talented enough to do just that.

No. 8 Designed by Kitten is on my ticket as well. She jumps up in class after a win over nonwinners of three a few weeks ago, but I love how she won that day. She rated professionally and pounced late going five furlongs, which isn’t an easy thing to do. Gulfstream’s synthetic track has been favoring horses with outside posts and trips as well, so the draw may be a blessing.

Friday feature draws a solid group

This optional claiming event for Florida-bred fillies and mares has attracted some talented runners. I’ll once again stick with using two of them. In this case, I’m hoping one runner improves off a strong debut or another bounces back off of a dud.

No. 1 Alecka Star did everything right in her unveiling back in September. She got to the front easily and romped by more than 14 lengths, and that day’s second- and third-place finishers both came back to win. That effort didn’t come back particularly strong on figures, but it wouldn’t be surprising if she’s matured and is ready for these deeper waters.

No. 4 American of Course, meanwhile, didn’t sit her preferred trip last time and paid the price for it. She didn’t make the lead and faded to fourth, and I don’t think that race is a reflection of her talent. Her two-back effort was a strong third against similar company, and I’m hoping Tyler Gaffalione gets her involved early.

The “all but one” approach

I rarely do this, but I’m using all but one runner in the Friday finale.

No. 1 Eagle Chief is the 7-5 favorite, and I think that’s an accurate price. Based on speed figures, he’s supposed to win … but it sure feels like we’ve said that a lot about him recently.

Eagle Chief is 0-for-12, and he’s been sent away at 6-1 or higher just once in his last nine starts. He’s had chances against weak groups and just hasn’t gotten the job done. At his price, with a likely race shape that doesn’t set up for him, I can’t endorse him.

As such, I’m using every other runner in here (Nos. 2 through 9). If Eagle Chief loses, this sequence stands to pay a nice chunk of change. If I get to this point, I’ll hope there’s safety in numbers.