Until horse racing analysts know for sure if Bob Baffert will be running in the 2022 Kentucky Derby, it’s quite a challenge to formulate a Derby Dozen of ranked contenders. But, because we like to have fun and keep it interesting, we’ll do it anyway.
Baffert’s suspension woes may keep him from this year’s Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs has banned Baffert from its tracks for two years — ending after the 2023 Derby — and declared that his horses are ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points. Baffert so far has not challenged that ban in court, although he is expected to do so.
First, he’ll have his hearing before the Kentucky state stewards. After being pushed back, it will now be held Monday, according to a report from Louisville TV station WLKY. The hearing will determine whether Medina Spirit’s 2021 Kentucky Derby win is revoked.
Looking further out to the Belmont, Baffert also recently went through a hearing with NYRA to help determine his suspension status in New York. No ruling has been issued so far.
Baffert’s Messier ed the top Beyer Speed Figure (103) among 3-year-olds on Sunday when his 15-length romp in the Grade 3 (G3) Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita put him squarely at the top of the weekend’s fastest runners, according to the Daily Racing Form.
Another standout horse from Baffert’s barn is Corniche, who is 3-for-3 with two G1 wins. In Kentucky Derby Futures Wagering, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner drifted from 18-1 to 22-1 at Circa and a 6-1 to 8-1 favorite at Caesars at William Hill.
That followed a report that the likely division champion for 2021 might be in doubt for Churchill Downs on May 7. However, Marette Farrell, racing manager for owner Speedway Stable, told Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman, “We’re not forcing him to make the Derby.”
If they are, he’d need to switch barns.
Larger point prep races to come, but not before Sam Davis and El Camino
Two more preps on Saturday will help sort out the contenders before the “win and you’re in” races begin later this month.
The G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs has 12 expected for the 1 1/16-mile race, including Classic Causeway, Golden Glider and Make It Big (10 Derby Standings points, undefeated in three races). Each will be looking to crack the Derby Dozen next week.
Golden Gate will offer the El Camino Real Derby at 1 1/8 miles, headed by Doug O’Neill’s Mackinnon, making his eighth lifetime start. This race last year produced Preakness winner Rombauer.
PlayFecta’s 2022 Derby Dozen
Here are the horses (and their trainers) we’re keeping our eyes on this week:
1. Rattle N Roll (Kenny Meek): Winner of the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in October; we’re not expected to see him racing again until the G2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 12. He has two wins in four lifetime starts.
2. Smile Happy (Meek): Rattle N Roll’s stablemate, Smile Happy is preparing for the G2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Feb. 19. His stock rose slightly last weekend with White Abarrio’s win in the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. White Abarrio placed third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes — a race in November won by Smile Happy.
3. Zandon (Chad Brown): The Grade 2 Remsen runner-up in early December gives Brown two Derby hopefuls — the other is Early Voting, who won Saturday’s Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct.
4. White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph Jr.): Scored a decisive 4 1/2-length victory in the Holy Bull under Tyler Gaffalione to up his overall Derby points to 12.
5. Early Voting (Brown): His dominant 4 1/2-length, wire-to-wire showing Saturday in the Withers left Brown to tell DRF, “Right now, with a horse like this, who wins like this, you have to think about the Derby.”
6. Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill): Minus Baffert, he is the top-rated 3-year-old training in California. Nonetheless, O’Neill said that he has a win over Messier in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity and is set for the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star.
7. Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher): Won the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct and rallied well to place third in the Holy Bull.
8. Epicenter (Steve Asmussen): Closed well to take second in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. Will face much tougher competition in the Risen Star on the same track.
9. Simplification (Antonio Sano): He was expected to set the pace in the Holy Bull, but a slow break cost him, and he rallied for second. He won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year’s Day at Gulfstream, wiring the field as the third choice.
10. Pappacap (Mark Casse): The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up currently tops the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, having 14 points along with Epicenter. Though yet to win going two turns in three starts, those losses were the Lecomte and two runner-up finishes last year in grade 1s behind Corniche.
11. In Due Time (Kelly Breen): Won a $61,000 Feb. 4 allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 when he drew off under pressure in the 1-mile race that featured eight horses. Then grabbed even more attention when his odds went from 250-1 to an eyebrow-raising 20-1 thanks to a flurry of maximum bets that an unidentified party made Friday at Caesars Sportsbook at William Hill Nevada.
12. Emmanuel (Pletcher): Is undefeated and has not trailed in two $75,000 races in Florida.
Even without Baffert, Derby Dozen makes for exciting competition
Todd Pletcher dominated the Pegasus just a few weeks ago. Chad Brown can give him a run for his money. Despite Baffert’s fate, we anticipate that the Road to the Kentucky Derby will be exciting.
